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Author Topic: 2021 SFE Strategy  (Read 911 times)

Attractor

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2021 SFE Strategy
« on: February 22, 2021, 08:55:30 PM »





A round of updates comes this week, except:
- PA, NS, ATTR:  no improvements has been found
- Stock Market. update in progress, but still not ready this week.

After the recent events, where at the same time the whole portfolio did made new highs some days ago, and just after faced a big loss again, I have been thinking about the points to try this be better in forward, because a good part of the EAs are clear winners but still is difficult to have consistent worth in the whole portfolio.

I have been working since the past weekend in all this. The current round of upgrades has two main items.

- Some timeframes are better than other. This has been also reported for community members. In general, for price action based EAs, short timeframes are better, because can do profit or 'survive' also when the market is not enough strong.

- Working on the script to select the Stock market cfds, I'm working on mid term trend detection. I have an interersting filter that is showing to be a good addtion to the general of the other  EAs.

So, based on these 2 previous items, comes the round of upgrades. In indices, gold and bitcoin EAs, the timeframes can be selected. On the other EAs, are internal, but has been reworked and limited, using only the best ones.

At the same time, a backtest from 2020, 14  months to now, has been done, and shows what we know already:

- Price Action EAs. Make profits on forex symbols with price action don't seems possible right now, so, we have to admit this and downgrade the usage of these EAs. There have been more than 2 years with that look already, so there is no reason to wait more, now that other EAs can offer good profit. If the activity on forex symbols change in the future, can be recovered at full.

-  Reversal EAs. Both can make profit, but I feel a lot more consistent Stealth than NS, for this reason, I put STE above NS in the rating.

- The rest of EAs, mainly using trend and price action strategy but on symbols other than Forex, have a lot better projection. I expect profit on them.

I will keep review and develop of all this EAs and an official signal on each of them, but for the EAs rated 1 or 2, I recommend be cautions, and probably I will not use in my private accounts right now.

With the current general improvents, and the downgrade on the usage of the out of tune EAs, I think the recommended portfolio growth will be more consistent in forward.

« Last Edit: February 22, 2021, 09:23:48 PM by Attractor »

Attractor

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Re: 2021 SFE Strategy
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2021, 10:47:13 PM »
MAY 1 UPDATE



A new management system has been implemented in the EAs colored in green. Now will be implemented in the others.

This management relies in the previous performance for take some decision, like allow or not a new trade. With this, the EA increase or decrease itself the activity, and this seems to give a big improvement on the mid / long term.

The improvement is awesome in major part of the EAs, reaching some of them profits factors about 3,0 and sharpe ration about 0,5, which are values never seen before.

The Kind of EAs with less improvement, are the clasical price action based on big movements, like PA and ATTR, because at final if you power is based on a few session in the year, the power of prediction of when will happen or not this sessions, can't be given by the previous performance. The performance analysis, have a lot more power on these kind of EAs that do no need very special movements for make his profit.

Appart of these two, the improvement on the other EAs is awesome.
As we can see, on part of these EAs, more kind of symbols are used now, like BTC or Indices, because the management algorithm has this capacity to take profit of 'hot' symbols, so put in play a wide number of symbols is interesting right now.

This time, as part of the reliability of the EA, I launched a backtest on 71 symbols I have enabled on the market watch right now in my development platform. (the 71 Symbols column). In this wide backtest, I can see a positive balance on the sum of all them, and I computed the profit / trade.
Find that these EAs can make a global profit if you choose all these symbols, while the development often only focus on majors or indices or some punctual kind of symbols, I think is a powerful indicator of realiability.
Merging the previos vs current backtest information, the profit factor, proft / DD, sharpe ratio and 71 symbols backtest, I launch a prediction of the level of the EAs.

From less to more:

- Attractor: in the previous rating, ATTR was clasiffied bad already, and new numbers confirm this. I have to say this is the bad new, I don't recommend use this EA for any who own the others price action EAs, because numbers demonstrate is several steps below the others, so, do not have much sense is it if you have better EAs. For my part, I will remove the EA of the market, I will keep the signal for see how evolves, but I will not spend time in this EA anymore except performance surprise me and deserves another chance.

- SFE breakout: I downgraded his rating because the 71 backtest analysis is weak in comparison  of other EAs of his class, so, although the backtest with the selected symbols is not bad, this fail of the 71 is saying that the algorithm is less solid than other EAs. For me this rating means is an usable EA, but with low risk assigned.

- SFE Kiss: Kiss has improved a lot but I only rate 3 because has not shown good performance yet, I think now finally will do, but I want to be prudence.

- SFE Price Action: needs big movements for do his job, and now there is a big lack, but at same time, shows a good resistance in the current analysis and althoug is not the best market for him right now, I think worth keep it in the portfolio.

- SFE Night Scalper: rating improved, this EA continue surpising me, because although the spread conditions at his span of trading is very bad, keeps to make profit consitently, probably because is a weak level market players at this span time. Is not suitable for scale to big funds, but for individual traders, is a solid path of income.

- SFE Stealth: suffered a lot on the big movements on the start of covid, but his numbers are putting in top rating right now.

- SFE Trend: bad live performance last months, but numbers says now this EA must give consistent profit, top rating right now.

- SFE Gold: suffering for the stagnation of gold big movements last months, but the current management can help with this, and gold has been one of the symbols with more big movements last years, so, no reason to think these movements has ended, are only in a consolidation phase, so this EA is top for the portfolio.

- SFE Alpha: shows the best stats of the price action family, so recieve the top rating right now.

I will update when the others EAs are done.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2021, 11:10:18 PM by Attractor »