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Author Topic: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo  (Read 1412 times)

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #45 on: September 07, 2019, 04:27:28 PM »
hehe,
yes, in spain we call this language 'spanglish'

and yes, obviously I like your portfolio :)  but you will see, If we launch ideas sure we can improve. I have an interesting idea about the SFE Night Scalper and requires users collaboration. I will explain later in the lab

I really admire your work ethic in that you keep trying to improve your EAs, especially when they are already better than 99% of whatís out there in the market! ;D

Of course, itís always good to improve more, so please keep up the good work! :)

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #46 on: September 12, 2019, 03:23:10 AM »
Today is ECB day!

Historically the price action based SFE EAs have done very well whenever there is a surprise from central bank decisions, especially the ECB and the FOMC.

Let's see if we will get some nice fireworks today! ;D

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #47 on: September 12, 2019, 08:04:01 AM »
In June 2018 the SFE Price Action official account gained 23.72% in one day thanks to ECB...it would be nice if we can get that again! :)


Attractor

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #48 on: September 12, 2019, 10:58:50 PM »
Wow!
what a big movement and a big trap today. Looked a perfect hit until the green line, incredible how the price has reversed all the length in only one hour.
Fortunately other set of trades has entered in the reversal, let's see if can run away a bit more...
The day ends with and incredible bullish hammer of the EUR. I hope that things follow the rules for one day and the uptrend continues in the friday session....



Has been a very active day, but seems that the x5 risk needs to be reduced because this has been a big roller coaster today !!  :o

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #49 on: September 13, 2019, 01:41:29 AM »
Yes it was a crazy day!

I think I was fortunate that something like this didnít happen when my account was smaller, otherwise I would have been margin-called!

But itís still good to see how the SFE EAs were able to accept losses and change the trade direction when itís right to do so, and now I am a bit up in equity after all. :)

If we can get another extension on the EUR pairs today then my account should have a nice gain.

My original plan was to reduce the risk once my account gets to $150K, then I will be running the following lot sizes:

SFE PA - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE ATR - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE EU - 1.0 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $600)
SFE NS - 0.9 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$31500 at 0.01 Lot per $350)

Total amount risked = US$60K + US$60K + US$60K + US$31.5K = US$211.5K

So using the merging SFE experts guide, my exposure would be roughly US$211.5K / 2.1 = US$100.71K = AU$146.8K (with AU exchange rate of 0.686)

Which means if I can get to AU$150K on my account and run the above lot sizes, I will be trading at recommended risk. :D

But after yesterdayís wake up call, I think I will just reduce the lot sizes to what I mentioned above, once the current basket closes. Even if my account doesnít end up with $150K, the new risk will still be much more acceptable than 4-5x recommended risk! :P


pmks1

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #50 on: September 13, 2019, 03:45:56 AM »
Hi jimmy, there must be running ice-water in your veines ..  8) 8)

Impressive that you did not close it all when you were back at new equity high for some minutes yesterday, after the reversal .. so well-done .. i am sure you will come out in a profitable way now.

Just want to re-make my point, that i still dont believe you are running 5X the risk, but closer to 10X for now, since you use the same capital for all four EA`s .. just saying .. not pointing fingers  ;D ;D

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #51 on: September 13, 2019, 05:10:18 AM »
Hi jimmy, there must be running ice-water in your veines ..  8) 8)

Impressive that you did not close it all when you were back at new equity high for some minutes yesterday, after the reversal .. so well-done .. i am sure you will come out in a profitable way now.

Just want to re-make my point, that i still dont believe you are running 5X the risk, but closer to 10X for now, since you use the same capital for all four EA`s .. just saying .. not pointing fingers  ;D ;D

I think I was ok...I was a bit stunned when all the sell trades hit SL and left me down $50K, but before I knew it the EAs had already recovered the losses within the next hour. 8)

I already know this is what Joel's EAs are capable of, so I just leave the trades in his EAs' hands. I don't think any human trader would have been able to recover the losses with the crazy movements yesterday - they would have just held the sell trades and be in huge DD after the prices retraced completely and may still be holding the sell trades now...it was definitely a very nasty short squeeze!

Yeah 5x or 10x risk doesn't really matter now, because I will be lowering the risk after this basket is closed. I am just glad that I survived a day which I know I wouldn't have if I was trading manually! ;D

pmks1

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #52 on: September 13, 2019, 05:19:46 AM »
Hi jimmy, there must be running ice-water in your veines ..  8) 8)

Impressive that you did not close it all when you were back at new equity high for some minutes yesterday, after the reversal .. so well-done .. i am sure you will come out in a profitable way now.

Just want to re-make my point, that i still dont believe you are running 5X the risk, but closer to 10X for now, since you use the same capital for all four EA`s .. just saying .. not pointing fingers  ;D ;D

Yeah 5x or 10x risk doesn't really matter now, because I will be lowering the risk after this basket is closed. I am just glad that I survived a day which I know I wouldn't have if I was trading manually! ;D

Absolutely agree ... !!

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #53 on: September 14, 2019, 01:20:47 AM »
Weekly Result - 9th Sep 2019 to 13rd Sep 2019

Total: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?#week)
-$759.16 (with $14318.29 floating profit)

SFE Price Action: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=400051-450601#week)
+$3569.41

SFE Attractor: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=510051-510605#week)
+$6127.99

SFE Night Scalper: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=710051-710302#week)
+$387.35

SFE EURUSD: (https://www.fxblue.com/users/jimmy8378/stats?magic=800051-860602#week)
-$10840.94

Wow...what a week it was! :o The ECB certainly didn't disappoint and gave us a lot of volatility, but the U-turn on EURUSD was certainly very nasty and my account was down about $50K very quickly! Fortunately the SFE EAs were able to catch the reversal and recovered all the losses. Now I have a basket of nice floating profit going into next week. :)

SFE PA and SFE Attractor ended the week with nice positive gains, and it is SFE EU that had a large loss. I think again it demonstrates the importance of trading multiple pairs for risk diversification to help minimise the drawdown. I am sure SFE EU will recover soon (maybe as soon as next week with the coming FOMC), but it would certainly be better to have less DD! ;)

Following the big (although temporary) drawdown on ECB day, I have decided that I will change my lot sizes to the following once the current basket closes:

SFE PA - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE ATR - 0.6 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $1000)
SFE EU - 1.0 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$60000 at 0.01 Lot per $600)
SFE NS - 0.9 Fixed Lot (amount risked = US$31500 at 0.01 Lot per $350)

Total amount risked = US$60K + US$60K + US$60K + US$31.5K = US$211.5K

So using Joelís merging SFE experts guide (see attached), my exposure would be roughly US$211.5K / 2.1 = US$100.71K = AU$146.8K (with AU exchange rate of 0.686)

Which means if my account has AU$150K and run the above lot sizes, I will be trading at the recommended risk. :D

Even if my account doesnít have $150K, the new risk will still be much more acceptable than 4-5x recommended risk. For example, if my account has $100K then I would be running at 1.5x recommended risk with the new lot sizes.

If the current trades don't all close before FOMC next week, then I plan to change the lot sizes just 10 minutes before FOMC takes place, so if another nasty zigzag happens this time we won't be hit as much.

For current subscribers, please leave the risk multiplier at 0.20 for now. Once I have reduced the risk on my account I will post an update here, and once that happens it would then be safe for you to use a risk multiplier higher than 0.20.

Have a nice weekend! :)
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 07:59:25 AM by ccjhuang »

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #54 on: Today at 12:38:22 AM »
Hi guys,

I got into this interesting debate with a member on DonnaForex about the maths behind merging the SFE EAs: https://donnaforex.com/index.php?topic=19777.msg391676#msg391676

I am sure Joel and my theory is correct but the member does not believe me...do you guys have a better way to explain it and help him understand?

Or if someone can do a backtest of running two SFE EAs together on the same account...maybe that will help convince him. :)
« Last Edit: Today at 01:01:16 AM by ccjhuang »

Attractor

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #55 on: Today at 02:24:48 AM »
Hi Jimmy,

I just posted a message there in relation to this, the message is waiting for approval.

I'm reviewing the exit strategy of the Attractor system. For the moment seems that I can't improve the final profit, but I'm trying to get out  more fast than the current rythm without lose this potential profit.
 
And also, for low balance accounts or for people that don't want to use partial closes, I'm trying to put the TP at a more close distance (when partial close are not used), without lose a significant potential of profit.

I don't think this changes will lead to a significant improvement of the performance, but will make the use of the EA more comfortable because the orders will remain open less time in general and this is good for our health.


ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #56 on: Today at 09:42:06 AM »
Hi Joel,

Your post is still not showing on DonnaForex yet. I hope they will approve your post soon. But just bear in mind that they are strict about not allowing links to other forums so they may not approve your message if you asked members to come here for discussion, or if you left a direct link to our forum in your post. I have been cautioned by the forum owner Donna herself via PM when I posted a direct link to our forum. :-[

I look forward to the improvements on the EAs, and I believe next week should give us a good chance of making nice profits given the number of high impact news that are due. :)
« Last Edit: Today at 10:09:30 AM by ccjhuang »

Attractor

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #57 on: Today at 12:30:59 PM »
I see, I just removed the message, not for think that can't be approved, but because really I peffer that people don't expect my participation there, you know I use all my free time to the work on the EAs and if I exchange feedback with the community I will center this here.

Next is my explanation, the point is that he talked about 'max' profit, and obviously I didn't said that the final profit is the sum of 'max' profits:

As an example, and assuming a fixed size of the trades:

If in the backtest the DD of the system A is for example 300$, and you want to fix the DD to 30%, then you need 1000$ of balance.

And if the system B is the same, DD of 300$, you need 1000$ for the system B for fix a 30% DD.

But if you use A+B and you apply the same criteria, have max. 30% DD, you don't need 1000+1000=2000$, becuase the probability that the 300+300 DD happens at the same moment if very low. Then, this depends of the correlation between strategies, and then you can do a merged bactkest an if the result is for example that max DD with A+B has been 450$, then, for fix the DD at 30%, you need 450/0.3 = 1500 $ instead of 2000 $.

And at same time, the 'total' profit (I didn't say the maximum profit) at the end of a period X or at the end of the backtest, is obviously the sum of the profit of the system A + system B at this date. And for reach this profit, you have only used 1500$ instead of 2000$. This is the final conclusion, that if your system A needs 1000$ and your system B needs 1000$, for use both with the same risk criteria (30% of the balance), you 'only' need 1500$, not 2000$, and you are still gaining the profit A + profit B, this is, the same profit using less $ of balance, then a better yield of the inversion.

Anyway, the document I wrote some years ago, some of the new EAs doesn't exist at that moment, then, I will do a global backtest soon to update my conclusions about the % of the EAs and which of them are more or less correlated.

ccjhuang

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Re: Jimmy's Account - SFE Combo
« Reply #58 on: Today at 12:53:45 PM »
Thanks very much Joel. :)

I have posted your reply there and hopefully it will be the end of the debate there.

And yes I would much prefer you to focus on working and improving the EAs, than to spend too much time explaining all the basics to people that donít understand statistical and probability very well.

I remember there was a question like this: you are at a game show and there is 3 doors and one has a prize behind it. You pick a door at random, and then the host opens one of the other 2 doors which is empty. And now he asks you if you would like to swap your choice or not. A lot of people would say they wonít swap because they think the chance of them having the prize is 1/2, but in fact if they change their choice then they actually have 2/3 chance of winning the prize! And some people just never believe this even if you try all that you can to explain the theory to them... :-\
« Last Edit: Today at 12:57:07 PM by ccjhuang »