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Author Topic: SFE Stock Market + Evolution FX MT5 100% Risk / SFE Evolution FX MT4 100% Risk  (Read 1378 times)

Jimmy

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Update 20th June 2020 - it is now possible to copy SFE Evoluton FX trades (no Stock trades) by paying 30% performance fee (watermark high, charged monthly) - please PM me for details :)

Update 1st June 2020 - subscription now closed

Update 17th May 2020 - Refunds now offered for 6-monthly subscriptions, and the number of active subscriptions for this signal will be capped at 10.

Update 16th May 2020 - I have tested and confirmed the AutoFxPro copier is capable of copying MT5 trades to MT4 without issues. So it is now also possible to just subscribe to SFE Evolution FX 100% Risk on MT4 - please see subscription options towards the bottom of this post.

Hi Guys,

Today the SFE Evolution FX EA has just been updated, and now includes: SFE Price Action, SFE Attractor, SFE Breakout, SFE KISS, SFE Night Scalper, SFE Stealth, and SFE Trend.

With Joel's permission, I am very excited to launch a new signal which will be running SFE Stock Market at recommended risk in combination with all the SFE Evolution FX EAs running at their recommended risk per trade, using 100% Balance Percentage. The name of the account is SFE Stock Market + Evolution FX 100% Risk and you can find it in my forum signature below.

I did a backtest since 2016 with SFE Evolution FX on MT5 running all the EAs at 100% Balance Percentage. The results showed the largest DD was around 40%. With that in mind I believe the max expected DD for this signal should be in the order of about 50-60%. (correction: the largest DD should actually be about 50% with SFE Breakout set to 2% risk per trade - please see next few posts below). There will be no risk of margin call as I will not set a min virtual balance value, and therefore the max risk on a single trade will just be 3% of the account balance in the worst case scenario where a full SL is hit on SFE Stealth. Once the SL is hit and the account size goes down, the new trades will get smaller in size, and hence smaller future loss. Given how powerful this EA is, the account is set to double every few months (about 18% average monthly growth since 2016 according to the backtest result), so my goal is take the full risk at least until I grow my $50K account to $1 million! ;D

Also, if you feel the risk is too high for you, you can always use a smaller risk multiplier setting with the copier. :)

You can subscribe to this signal following the simple Steps below:

Step 1: Open an IC Markets MT5 account (skip to Step 3 if just copying on MT4)

As you may be aware, the Stock Market CFD symbols are different across different brokers, and since I am trading with IC Markets, subscriber to this new signal will need to trade on the IC Markets MT5 platform as well.

For those who don't have an IC Markets account yet, you can use this link to sign up under Joel's referral ID and get discounted commission of $5.5 per lot instead of the standard $7 per lot (round turn): http://www.icmarkets.com/?camp=4176. Alternatively, you can just enter 4176 for the Refer ID during the registration process.

Once you are registered with IC Markets, you can open a new live MT5 account through the client portal - choose Raw Spread account, your preferred base currency and Leverage:



Step 2: Activate Stock CFD trading on IC Markets

Also, new MT5 users will need to request for Stock CFD to be activated by IC Markets to be able to start trading them. So once you have deposited some funds into the trading account, you will need to email IC Markets Support. The activation process should typically take no more than 24 hours. I have included a sample email below:



Step 3: Install SFE Trade Receiver EA for MT5/MT4

Once Stock CFD is activated (for MT5 users), you can then download and install the SFE Trade Receiver EA for MT5 (or MT4), which is attached to this post (MT5 = .ex5, MT4 = .ex4). Please read the accompanying manual carefully on how to install, and it is also important to make sure you add http://register.autofxpro.com and http://copy.autofxpro.com in the WebRequest URL, as shown below:



Step 4: Subscribe to the signal

Subscriptions have now been closed, but you can now copy SFE Evolution FX trades for a 30% performance fee (watermark high, charged monthly) if you deposit at least $5000 USD with an ASIC-regulated broker that is partnering with us. It means you won't be charged anything if you don't make a profit! - please PM me for details. :)

You can find me in the SFE Community Telegram Channel: https://t.me/sfecommunity
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 04:23:10 AM by Jimmy »

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Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

jasper2603

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Hi Jimmy,

Sounds very nice and I might sign up for your signals. a few questions, could you post the backtest results you did? And what would be the recommended funding amount to start with?

Great idea this copier!

Jimmy

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Hi Jimmy,

Sounds very nice and I might sign up for your signals. a few questions, could you post the backtest results you did? And what would be the recommended funding amount to start with?

Great idea this copier!

Hi Japser,

You can see the images below. It grew $10K to $75 millions from 1st Jan 2016 to 9th May 2020 so it was 7500 times growth in 52 months, which works out to be around 18% monthly gain on average.

Even if the backtest is a bit more optimistic than real live trading conditions, I believe the EAs should still easily deliver 10% per month on average, which would have turned the $10K into $1.42 million during the same period. ;D

Oh and to be able to cover the margins, take advantage of the partial close function on some of the EAs, and be able to trade Stock CFD effectively (IC Markets has a minimum requirement of 10 shares per trade for Stock trades so you may miss out on some Stock trades if your account balance is too small), I would say it would be best to have an account size of $10K or more. This will also help justify the cost of the signal, which will work out to be no more than 1-1.2% of the trading capital per month if you trade with over $10K.


« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 12:26:47 PM by Jimmy »

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Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Actually I just realised with the initial backtest I had set the risk per trade setting for SFE Breakout at 1%, but now the officially recommended normal risk is 2%. Therefore I have run another backtest with SFE Breakout at 2% risk per trade, and this time it gave nearly $79 million gain with a slightly larger DD of 50%.

Nevertheless, I have decided that I will still run SFE Breakout at 2% risk per trade on my SFE Stock Market + Evolution FX 100% Risk account - my theory is that you should make all your money work for you! ;D

I think the bottomline is that this is still a high risk signal, so if you don't feel comfortable please use a lower risk multiplier. :)

There is also another account on my Myfxook which you can follow, that shows how the account would perform at 50% risk. ;)


« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 02:42:20 PM by Jimmy »

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SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

jasper2603

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Hi Jimmy,

Thanks for you backtest results, these look incredible good. But be aware your data history quality is only 38%.. So what value can we give to the backtest results. Is it possible you do a backtest with a better data source.

I have my doubts with the results of your backtest, what are your thoughts about that?

Jimmy

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Well I know backtests can be a bit more optimistic than real live trading conditions, but I am 100% convinced the EAs will be profitable in the long term - the only question is just by how much.

I donít normally do backtests myself because I trust Joelís own backtest results which was already done hundreds (if not thousands) of times before he released the EAs. My backtests wonít be more accurate than his own so I donít have any intention on chasing perfection on backtests. I only did the backtests because I know people are obsessed about them nowadays. But people should also know that most backtests are optimised or doctored by a lot of vendors who just want to boost their sales, and their EAs would have never been profitable in real trading in the long term anyway.

People can sit here all day arguing about how profitable or how much DD there SHOULD HAVE BEEN, but I will just stop wasting my time on backtests and put my own money on Joelís EAs to capture the profits that I know WILL BE there. 8)

The truth is that even if my account hits 80% DD and drops from $50K to $10K, with the compounding growth on the EAs it will still make back the losses very quickly. We already saw in the backtest how they can turn $10K into $79M in a bit over 4 years. So even if the monthly growth is just half of that, I would still make over $1M starting with $10K during the same period. So whatís there for me to worry about? ;D
« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 08:17:52 PM by Jimmy »

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Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

jasper2603

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Hi Jimmy,

You are right about the backtest part, backtests don't say everything. But I will follow your myfxbook results for a few months and if it is good enough I will step in and join your copier service.

Lets hope you make a lot of pips

Cheers

Jimmy

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Hi Jimmy,

You are right about the backtest part, backtests don't say everything. But I will follow your myfxbook results for a few months and if it is good enough I will step in and join your copier service.

Lets hope you make a lot of pips

Cheers

No problem, I will still be here. :D

I have no doubt that the EAs will continue to deliver in the long term...after all I have already made over $330K on my old accounts with them - and that's using up to 5 times the recommended risk :o (I often traded the accounts as if they were $100K accounts, when it only had about $20K in there ;D).

You could say that's just gambling - except the long term odds were actually in my favour thanks to Joel's EAs. That's exactly how casinos make money off gamblers with their long term mathematical edge. ;)

And as my accounts have grown to decent sizes now, I have decided to take away the short term luck factor by just using the EAs without manual intervention from now on, and I am sure the results will once again speak for themselves over time. :)

You can verify the stats below under my old Myfxbook username: https://www.myfxbook.com/en/members/jimmy8378. The DD's are large because of the high risk I took, but it all paid off in the end. 8)

« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 06:26:24 AM by Jimmy »

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Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Out of curiosity, I have just run another set of backtests year by year since 2008, starting with a balance of $10K at the start of each year.

It actually confirmed that the 50% DD in 2016 was actually the largest ever reached DD since 2008, but that year's profit also went up to a crazy $9 million!

Also, we are already sitting at nearly 35% DD for 2020, so if history repeats itself, I believe it is very likely we will be going back up in equity very soon. ;D

PS. I am not sure why the history quality is a lot worse since 2017...that's just what the MT5 terminal told me...???

You can see the summary in the image below, and I have attached the full backtest results in the zip file attached :)


[COPY THIS ACCOUNT on Social Trader Tools]

SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Hi Guys,

Just to let you know the opening post has been modified - it is now possible to just copy SFE Evolution FX at 100% risk for all EAs on MT4 now, and the price is cheaper because Stock trades are not included. ;)

The price for copying SFE Evolution FX at 100% risk on MT4 will be $100 per month and $250 every 3 months. The subscription links are at the bottom of the opening post. :)
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 08:19:27 AM by Jimmy »

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SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Hi Guys,

I have just updated the opening post - I will now offer 75% refund for 6-monthly subscribers if the signal does not perform for you (it cannot be 100% because we still need to cover some operating costs).
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 10:40:25 PM by Jimmy »

[COPY THIS ACCOUNT on Social Trader Tools]

SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Hi Guys,

We now also offer discounts for people who had previously bought Joel's EAs, and the discount will be $10 per EA per month.

For example, if you had bought 2 different SFE EAs in the past, your monthly subscription fee for the SFE Evolution FX 100% Risk MT4 signal will be reduced by $20, ie. from $100 per month down to $80 per month. On the other hand, if you sign up for the 6-monthly subscription, you will get $20 x 6 = $120 off the $500 which will make it $380 for the 6 months. ;)

If you would like to apply for the discount, please PM me on the SFE Community Telegram Channel, and I will send a customised Paypal link to you. :)
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 02:44:42 AM by Jimmy »

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SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Hi Guys,

It has been a bit disappointing to see the lack of interest in my signal, so I have decided that I will now limit the subscription to just 10 places. After all I am making much more trading with the EAs myself so it's really not worth the time and effort  for me to run a signal.

My initial thoughts about offering the signal was that I would like more people to know about the great systems that Joel has developed, but it seems like most people still prefer to use risky systems and gamble their money away...I suppose you can only save those who want to be saved...so I have decided to just go back and concentrate on my own trading. :)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 11:57:51 AM by Jimmy »

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Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Hi Guys,

As 2009 had the lowest gain and 2016 had the largest DD in the backtest running SFE Evolution FX at 100% Risk, I decided to do a few more backtests checking what would happen if I used SFE Evolution FX at 50% risk and 25% risk for those 2 years.



To my surprise, the DD would actually be less in 2016 than in 2009 if you run the EA either at 50% or 25% Risk. And running at 50% risk you would still make 160% gain in 2009 and up to 6750% gain in 2016, with the DD being just around 20%. If you run SFE Evolution FX at 25% Risk then the gain and DD would be both be much less (DD was only about 10% but growth was also only 1/10 that of 2016).

So it appears to me that 50% Risk probably gives the best balance for risk and reward, which will probably be the risk I would recommend people to use going forward (ie. change the risk multiplier to 0.5x risk).

However, I do believe the next big gain should be imminent (SFE PA official account has be in DD for about 2 months now), so I will keep most of my funds in the $70K account until that next big gain happens. Once we have caught the next big gain then I will move some of the profits into the 50% risk account in order to preserve capital during the next DD/stagnation period.

People can obviously use 25% risk as well if they want to keep the DD low, but it may not be worth the time and effort unless you have a very large account to be trading with.

You can see the new backtest results attached to this post. :)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 12:37:31 PM by Jimmy »

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SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.

Jimmy

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Hi Guys,

Due to the lack of public interest in my signal, I have decided to close it to new subscriptions when the Market opens again on Monday. It just seems a bit silly for me to offer this signal for $100-120 per month when I have already made over $13000 trading with it. At the same time, I still want to offer people an opportunity to experience the amazing power of Joel's EAs. So if there is still anyone out there interested in my signal, please sign up before this weekend ends, after which it will be closed to new subscriptions until further notice. :)
« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 05:52:45 AM by Jimmy »

[COPY THIS ACCOUNT on Social Trader Tools]

SFE Community Telegram: https://t.me/sfecommunity
Risk Warning: This message contains general information which doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Trading isn't suitable for everyone and, if you're a professional/wholesale client, you could lose more than your initial investment. Please read the relevant legal documents and seek independent advice if necessary.